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Friedrich August von Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in
Society” [1945]
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Edition Used:
“The Use of Knowledge in Society,” American Economic Review, XXXV, No. 4;
September, 1945, pp. 519–30.
Author: Friedrich August von Hayek
About This Title:
One of Hayek’s most important contributions to economic theory is his demonstration
of the part prices play in disseminating widely diffused knowledge about consumer
demand and the availablility of economic resources in order to make rational
economic calculation possible.
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About Liberty Fund:
Liberty Fund, Inc. is a private, educational foundation established to encourage the
study of the ideal of a society of free and responsible individuals.
Copyright Information:
This essay is published with permission of the copyright holders the American
Economic Review.
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Table Of Contents
I
Ii
Iii
Iv
V
Vi
Vii
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F. A. Hayek, “The Use Of Knowledge In Society” American
Economic Review, XXXV, No. 4; September, 1945, Pp.
519–30.
I
What is the problem we wish to solve when we try to construct a rational economic
order? On certain familiar assumptions the answer is simple enough. If we possess all
the relevant information, if we can start out from a given system of preferences, and if
we command complete knowledge of available means, the problem which remains is
purely one of logic. That is, the answer to the question of what is the best use of the
available means is implicit in our assumptions. The conditions which the solution of
this optimum problem must satisfy have been fully worked out and can be stated best
in mathematical form: put at their briefest, they are that the marginal rates of
substitution between any two commodities or factors must be the same in all their
different uses.
This, however, is emphatically not the economic problem which society faces. And
the economic calculus which we have developed to solve this logical problem, though
an important step toward the solution of the economic problem of society, does not
yet provide an answer to it. The reason for this is that the “data” from which the
economic calculus starts are never for the whole society “given” to a single mind
which could work out the implications and can never be so given.
The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined
precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make
use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of
incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals
possess. The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to
allocate “given” resources—if “given” is taken to mean given to a single mind which
deliberately solves the problem set by these “data.” It is rather a problem of how to
secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends
whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a
problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.
This character of the fundamental problem has, I am afraid, been obscured rather than
illuminated by many of the recent refinements of economic theory, particularly by
many of the uses made of mathematics. Though the problem with which I want
primarily to deal in this paper is the problem of a rational economic organization, I
shall in its course be led again and again to point to its close connections with certain
methodological questions. Many of the points I wish to make are indeed conclusions
toward which diverse paths of reasoning have unexpectedly converged. But, as I now
see these problems, this is no accident. It seems to me that many of the current
disputes with regard to both economic theory and economic policy have their
common origin in a misconception about the nature of the economic problem of
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society. This misconception in turn is due to an erroneous transfer to social
phenomena of the habits of thought we have developed in dealing with the
phenomena of nature.
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II
In ordinary language we describe by the word “planning” the complex of interrelated
decisions about the allocation of our available resources. All economic activity is in
this sense planning; and in any society in which many people collaborate, this
planning, whoever does it, will in some measure have to be based on knowledge
which, in the first instance, is not given to the planner but to somebody else, which
somehow will have to be conveyed to the planner. The various ways in which the
knowledge on which people base their plans is communicated to them is the crucial
problem for any theory explaining the economic process, and the problem of what is
the best way of utilizing knowledge initially dispersed among all the people is at least
one of the main problems of economic policy—or of designing an efficient economic
system.
The answer to this question is closely connected with that other question which arises
here, that of who is to do the planning. It is about this question that all the dispute
about “economic planning” centers. This is not a dispute about whether planning is to
be done or not. It is a dispute as to whether planning is to be done centrally, by one
authority for the whole economic system, or is to be divided among many individuals.
Planning in the specific sense in which the term is used in contemporary controversy
necessarily means central planning—direction of the whole economic system
according to one unified plan. Competition, on the other hand, means decentralized
planning by many separate persons. The halfway house between the two, about which
many people talk but which few like when they see it, is the delegation of planning to
organized industries, or, in other words, monopoly.
Which of these systems is likely to be more efficient depends mainly on the question
under which of them we can expect that fuller use will be made of the existing
knowledge. And this, in turn, depends on whether we are more likely to succeed in
putting at the disposal of a single central authority all the knowledge which ought to
be used but which is initially dispersed among many different individuals, or in
conveying to the individuals such additional knowledge as they need in order to
enable them to fit their plans with those of others.
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III
It will at once be evident that on this point the position will be different with respect
to different kinds of knowledge; and the answer to our question will therefore largely
turn on the relative importance of the different kinds of knowledge; those more likely
to be at the disposal of particular individuals and those which we should with greater
confidence expect to find in the possession of an authority made up of suitably chosen
experts. If it is today so widely assumed that the latter will be in a better position, this
is because one kind of knowledge, namely, scientific knowledge, occupies now so
prominent a place in public imagination that we tend to forget that it is not the only
kind that is relevant. It may be admitted that, as far as scientific knowledge is
concerned, a body of suitably chosen experts may be in the best position to command
all the best knowledge available—though this is of course merely shifting the
difficulty to the problem of selecting the experts. What I wish to point out is that, even
assuming that this problem can be readily solved, it is only a small part of the wider
problem.
Today it is almost heresy to suggest that scientific knowledge is not the sum of all
knowledge. But a little reflection will show that there is beyond question a body of
very important but unorganized knowledge which cannot possibly be called scientific
in the sense of knowledge of general rules: the knowledge of the particular
circumstances of time and place. It is with respect to this that practically every
individual has some advantage over all others because he possesses unique
information of which beneficial use might be made, but of which use can be made
only if the decisions depending on it are left to him or are made with his active
coöperation. We need to remember only how much we have to learn in any
occupation after we have completed our theoretical training, how big a part of our
working life we spend learning particular jobs, and how valuable an asset in all walks
of life is knowledge of people, of local conditions, and of special circumstances. To
know of and put to use a machine not fully employed, or somebody's skill which
could be better utilized, or to be aware of a surplus stock which can be drawn upon
during an interruption of supplies, is socially quite as useful as the knowledge of
better alternative techniques. And the shipper who earns his living from using
otherwise empty or half-filled journeys of tramp-steamers, or the estate agent whose
whole knowledge is almost exclusively one of temporary opportunities, or the
arbitrageur who gains from local differences of commodity prices, are all performing
eminently useful functions based on special knowledge of circumstances of the
fleeting moment not known to others.
It is a curious fact that this sort of knowledge should today be generally regarded with
a kind of contempt and that anyone who by such knowledge gains an advantage over
somebody better equipped with theoretical or technical knowledge is thought to have
acted almost disreputably. To gain an advantage from better knowledge of facilities of
communication or transport is sometimes regarded as almost dishonest, although it is
quite as important that society make use of the best opportunities in this respect as in
using the latest scientific discoveries. This prejudice has in a considerable measure
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affected the attitude toward commerce in general compared with that toward
production. Even economists who regard themselves as definitely immune to the
crude materialist fallacies of the past constantly commit the same mistake where
activities directed toward the acquisition of such practical knowledge are
concerned—apparently because in their scheme of things all such knowledge is
supposed to be “given.” The common idea now seems to be that all such knowledge
should as a matter of course be readily at the command of everybody, and the
reproach of irrationality leveled against the existing economic order is frequently
based on the fact that it is not so available. This view disregards the fact that the
method by which such knowledge can be made as widely available as possible is
precisely the problem to which we have to find an answer.
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IV
If it is fashionable today to minimize the importance of the knowledge of the
particular circumstances of time and place, this is closely connected with the smaller
importance which is now attached to change as such. Indeed, there are few points on
which the assumptions made (usually only implicitly) by the “planners” differ from
those of their opponents as much as with regard to the significance and frequency of
changes which will make substantial alterations of production plans necessary. Of
course, if detailed economic plans could be laid down for fairly long periods in
advance and then closely adhered to, so that no further economic decisions of
importance would be required, the task of drawing up a comprehensive plan
governing all economic activity would be much less formidable.
It is, perhaps, worth stressing that economic problems arise always and only in
consequence of change. So long as things continue as before, or at least as they were
expected to, there arise no new problems requiring a decision, no need to form a new
plan. The belief that changes, or at least day-to-day adjustments, have become less
important in modern times implies the contention that economic problems also have
become less important. This belief in the decreasing importance of change is, for that
reason, usually held by the same people who argue that the importance of economic
considerations has been driven into the background by the growing importance of
technological knowledge.
Is it true that, with the elaborate apparatus of modern production, economic decisions
are required only at long intervals, as when a new factory is to be erected or a new
process to be introduced? Is it true that, once a plant has been built, the rest is all more
or less mechanical, determined by the character of the plant, and leaving little to be
changed in adapting to the ever-changing circumstances of the moment?
The fairly widespread belief in the affirmative is not, as far as I can ascertain, borne
out by the practical experience of the businessman. In a competitive industry at any
rate—and such an industry alone can serve as a test—the task of keeping cost from
rising requires constant struggle, absorbing a great part of the energy of the manager.
How easy it is for an inefficient manager to dissipate the differentials on which
profitability rests, and that it is possible, with the same technical facilities, to produce
with a great variety of costs, are among the commonplaces of business experience
which do not seem to be equally familiar in the study of the economist. The very
strength of the desire, constantly voiced by producers and engineers, to be allowed to
proceed untrammeled by considerations of money costs, is eloquent testimony to the
extent to which these factors enter into their daily work.
One reason why economists are increasingly apt to forget about the constant small
changes which make up the whole economic picture is probably their growing
preoccupation with statistical aggregates, which show a very much greater stability
than the movements of the detail. The comparative stability of the aggregates cannot,
however, be accounted for—as the statisticians occasionally seem to be inclined to
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do—by the “law of large numbers” or the mutual compensation of random changes.
The number of elements with which we have to deal is not large enough for such
accidental forces to produce stability. The continuous flow of goods and services is
maintained by constant deliberate adjustments, by new dispositions made every day in
the light of circumstances not known the day before, by B stepping in at once when A
fails to deliver. Even the large and highly mechanized plant keeps going largely
because of an environment upon which it can draw for all sorts of unexpected needs;
tiles for its roof, stationery for its forms, and all the thousand and one kinds of
equipment in which it cannot be self-contained and which the plans for the operation
of the plant require to be readily available in the market.
This is, perhaps, also the point where I should briefly mention the fact that the sort of
knowledge with which I have been concerned is knowledge of the kind which by its
nature cannot enter into statistics and therefore cannot be conveyed to any central
authority in statistical form. The statistics which such a central authority would have
to use would have to be arrived at precisely by abstracting from minor differences
between the things, by lumping together, as resources of one kind, items which differ
as regards location, quality, and other particulars, in a way which may be very
significant for the specific decision. It follows from this that central planning based on
statistical information by its nature cannot take direct account of these circumstances
of time and place and that the central planner will have to find some way or other in
which the decisions depending on them can be left to the “man on the spot.”
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V
If we can agree that the economic problem of society is mainly one of rapid
adaptation to changes in the particular circumstances of time and place, it would seem
to follow that the ultimate decisions must be left to the people who are familiar with
these circumstances, who know directly of the relevant changes and of the resources
immediately available to meet them. We cannot expect that this problem will be
solved by first communicating all this knowledge to a central board which, after
integrating all knowledge, issues its orders. We must solve it by some form of
decentralization. But this answers only part of our problem. We need decentralization
because only thus can we insure that the knowledge of the particular circumstances of
time and place will be promptly used. But the “man on the spot” cannot decide solely
on the basis of his limited but intimate knowledge of the facts of his immediate
surroundings. There still remains the problem of communicating to him such further
information as he needs to fit his decisions into the whole pattern of changes of the
larger economic system.
How much knowledge does he need to do so successfully? Which of the events which
happen beyond the horizon of his immediate knowledge are of relevance to his
immediate decision, and how much of them need he know?
There is hardly anything that happens anywhere in the world that might not have an
effect on the decision he ought to make. But he need not know of these events as
such, nor of all their effects. It does not matter for him why at the particular moment
more screws of one size than of another are wanted, why paper bags are more readily
available than canvas bags, or why skilled labor, or particular machine tools, have for
the moment become more difficult to obtain. All that is significant for him is how
much more or less difficult to procure they have become compared with other things
with which he is also concerned, or how much more or less urgently wanted are the
alternative things he produces or uses. It is always a question of the relative
importance of the particular things with which he is concerned, and the causes which
alter their relative importance are of no interest to him beyond the effect on those
concrete things of his own environment.
It is in this connection that what I have called the “economic calculus” proper helps
us, at least by analogy, to see how this problem can be solved, and in fact is being
solved, by the price system. Even the single controlling mind, in possession of all the
data for some small, self-contained economic system, would not—every time some
small adjustment in the allocation of resources had to be made—go explicitly through
all the relations between ends and means which might possibly be affected. It is
indeed the great contribution of the pure logic of choice that it has demonstrated
conclusively that even such a single mind could solve this kind of problem only by
constructing and constantly using rates of equivalence (or “values,” or “marginal rates
of substitution"), i.e., by attaching to each kind of scarce resource a numerical index
which cannot be derived from any property possessed by that particular thing, but
which reflects, or in which is condensed, its significance in view of the whole meansOnline
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end structure. In any small change he will have to consider only these quantitative
indices (or “values") in which all the relevant information is concentrated; and, by
adjusting the quantities one by one, he can appropriately rearrange his dispositions
without having to solve the whole puzzle ab initio or without needing at any stage to
survey it at once in all its ramifications.
Fundamentally, in a system in which the knowledge of the relevant facts is dispersed
among many people, prices can act to coördinate the separate actions of different
people in the same way as subjective values help the individual to coördinate the parts
of his plan. It is worth contemplating for a moment a very simple and commonplace
instance of the action of the price system to see what precisely it accomplishes.
Assume that somewhere in the world a new opportunity for the use of some raw
material, say, tin, has arisen, or that one of the sources of supply of tin has been
eliminated. It does not matter for our purpose—and it is very significant that it does
not matter—which of these two causes has made tin more scarce. All that the users of
tin need to know is that some of the tin they used to consume is now more profitably
employed elsewhere and that, in consequence, they must economize tin. There is no
need for the great majority of them even to know where the more urgent need has
arisen, or in favor of what other needs they ought to husband the supply. If only some
of them know directly of the new demand, and switch resources over to it, and if the
people who are aware of the new gap thus created in turn fill it from still other
sources, the effect will rapidly spread throughout the whole economic system and
influence not only all the uses of tin but also those of its substitutes and the substitutes
of these substitutes, the supply of all the things made of tin, and their substitutes, and
so on; and all his without the great majority of those instrumental in bringing about
these substitutions knowing anything at all about the original cause of these changes.
The whole acts as one market, not because any of its members survey the whole field,
but because their limited individual fields of vision sufficiently overlap so that
through many intermediaries the relevant information is communicated to all. The
mere fact that there is one price for any commodity—or rather that local prices are
connected in a manner determined by the cost of transport, etc.—brings about the
solution which (it is just conceptually possible) might have been arrived at by one
single mind possessing all the information which is in fact dispersed among all the
people involved in the process.
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VI
We must look at the price system as such a mechanism for communicating
information if we want to understand its real function—a function which, of course, it
fulfils less perfectly as prices grow more rigid. (Even when quoted prices have
become quite rigid, however, the forces which would operate through changes in price
still operate to a considerable extent through changes in the other terms of the
contract.) The most significant fact about this system is the economy of knowledge
with which it operates, or how little the individual participants need to know in order
to be able to take the right action. In abbreviated form, by a kind of symbol, only the
most essential information is passed on and passed on only to those concerned. It is
more than a metaphor to describe the price system as a kind of machinery for
registering change, or a system of telecommunications which enables individual
producers to watch merely the movement of a few pointers, as an engineer might
watch the hands of a few dials, in order to adjust their activities to changes of which
they may never know more than is reflected in the price movement.
Of course, these adjustments are probably never “perfect” in the sense in which the
economist conceives of them in his equilibrium analysis. But I fear that our theoretical
habits of approaching the problem with the assumption of more or less perfect
knowledge on the part of almost everyone has made us somewhat blind to the true
function of the price mechanism and led us to apply rather misleading standards in
judging its efficiency. The marvel is that in a case like that of a scarcity of one raw
material, without an order being issued, without more than perhaps a handful of
people knowing the cause, tens of thousands of people whose identity could not be
ascertained by months of investigation, are made to use the material or its products
more sparingly; i.e., they move in the right direction. This is enough of a marvel even
if, in a constantly changing world, not all will hit it off so perfectly that their profit
rates will always be maintained at the same constant or “normal” level.
I have deliberately used the word “marvel” to shock the reader out of the
complacency with which we often take the working of this mechanism for granted. I
am convinced that if it were the result of deliberate human design, and if the people
guided by the price changes understood that their decisions have significance far
beyond their immediate aim, this mechanism would have been acclaimed as one of
the greatest triumphs of the human mind. Its misfortune is the double one that it is not
the product of human design and that the people guided by it usually do not know
why they are made to do what they do. But those who clamor for “conscious
direction”—and who cannot believe that anything which has evolved without design
(and even without our understanding it) should solve problems which we should not
be able to solve consciously—should remember this: The problem is precisely how to
extend the span of out utilization of resources beyond the span of the control of any
one mind; and therefore, how to dispense with the need of conscious control, and how
to provide inducements which will make the individuals do the desirable things
without anyone having to tell them what to do.
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The problem which we meet here is by no means peculiar to economics but arises in
connection with nearly all truly social phenomena, with language and with most of
our cultural inheritance, and constitutes really the central theoretical problem of all
social science. As Alfred Whitehead has said in another connection, “It is a
profoundly erroneous truism, repeated by all copy-books and by eminent people when
they are making speeches, that we should cultivate the habit of thinking what we are
doing. The precise opposite is the case. Civilization advances by extending the
number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them.”
This is of profound significance in the social field. We make constant use of formulas,
symbols, and rules whose meaning we do not understand and through the use of
which we avail ourselves of the assistance of knowledge which individually we do not
possess. We have developed these practices and institutions by building upon habits
and institutions which have proved successful in their own sphere and which have in
turn become the foundation of the civilization we have built up.
The price system is just one of those formations which man has learned to use (though
he is still very far from having learned to make the best use of it) after he had
stumbled upon it without understanding it. Through it not only a division of labor but
also a coördinated utilization of resources based on an equally divided knowledge has
become possible. The people who like to deride any suggestion that this may be so
usually distort the argument by insinuating that it asserts that by some miracle just
that sort of system has spontaneously grown up which is best suited to modern
civilization. It is the other way round: man has been able to develop that division of
labor on which our civilization is based because he happened to stumble upon a
method which made it possible. Had he not done so, he might still have developed
some other, altogether different, type of civilization, something like the “state” of the
termite ants, or some other altogether unimaginable type. All that we can say is that
nobody has yet succeeded in designing an alternative system in which certain features
of the existing one can be preserved which are dear even to those who most violently
assail it—such as particularly the extent to which the individual can choose his
pursuits and consequently freely use his own knowledge and skill.
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VII
It is in many ways fortunate that the dispute about the indispensability of the price
system for any rational calculation in a complex society is now no longer conducted
entirely between camps holding different political views. The thesis that without the
price system we could not preserve a society based on such extensive division of labor
as ours was greeted with a howl of derision when it was first advanced by von Mises
twenty-five years ago. Today the difficulties which some still find in accepting it are
no longer mainly political, and this makes for an atmosphere much more conducive to
reasonable discussion. When we find Leon Trotsky arguing that “economic
accounting is unthinkable without market relations”; when Professor Oscar Lange
promises Professor von Mises a statue in the marble halls of the future Central
Planning Board; and when Professor Abba P. Lerner rediscovers Adam Smith and
emphasizes that the essential utility of the price system consists in inducing the
individual, while seeking his own interest, to do what is in the general interest, the
differences can indeed no longer be ascribed to political prejudice. The remaining
dissent seems clearly to be due to purely intellectual, and more particularly
methodological, differences.
A recent statement by Professor Joseph Schumpeter in his Capitalism, Socialism, and
Democracy provides a clear illustration of one of the methodological differences
which I have in mind. Its author is pre-eminent among those economists who
approach economic phenomena in the light of a certain branch of positivism. To him
these phenomena accordingly appear as objectively given quantities of commodities
impinging directly upon each other, almost, it would seem, without any intervention
of human minds. Only against this background can I account for the following (to me
startling) pronouncement. Professor Schumpeter argues that the possibility of a
rational calculation in the absence of markets for the factors of production follows for
the theorist “from the elementary proposition that consumers in evaluating
(‘demanding’) consumers' goods ipso facto also evaluate the means of production
which enter into the production of these goods.”1
Taken literally, this statement is simply untrue. The consumers do nothing of the kind.
What Professor Schumpeter's "ipso facto" presumably means is that the valuation of
the factors of production is implied in, or follows necessarily from, the valuation of
consumers' goods. But this, too, is not correct. Implication is a logical relationship
which can be meaningfully asserted only of propositions simultaneously present to
one and the same mind. It is evident, however, that the values of the factors of
production do not depend solely on the valuation of the consumers' goods but also on
the conditions of supply of the various factors of production. Only to a mind to which
all these facts were simultaneously known would the answer necessarily follow from
the facts given to it. The practical problem, however, arises precisely because these
facts are never so given to a single mind, and because, in consequence, it is necessary
that in the solution of the problem knowledge should be used that is dispersed among
many people.
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The problem is thus in no way solved if we can show that all the facts, if they were
known to a single mind (as we hypothetically assume them to be given to the
observing economist), would uniquely determine the solution; instead we must show
how a solution is produced by the interactions of people each of whom possesses only
partial knowledge. To assume all the knowledge to be given to a single mind in the
same manner in which we assume it to be given to us as the explaining economists is
to assume the problem away and to disregard everything that is important and
significant in the real world.
That an economist of Professor Schumpeter's standing should thus have fallen into a
trap which the ambiguity of the term “datum” sets to the unwary can hardly be
explained as a simple error. It suggests rather that there is something fundamentally
wrong with an approach which habitually disregards an essential part of the
phenomena with which we have to deal: the unavoidable imperfection of man's
knowledge and the consequent need for a process by which knowledge is constantly
communicated and acquired. Any approach, such as that of much of mathematical
economics with its simultaneous equations, which in effect starts from the assumption
that people's knowledge corresponds with the objective facts of the situation,
systematically leaves out what is our main task to explain. I am far from denying that
in our system equilibrium analysis has a useful function to perform. But when it
comes to the point where it misleads some of our leading thinkers into believing that
the situation which it describes has direct relevance to the solution of practical
problems, it is high time that we remember that it does not deal with the social
process at all and that it is no more than a useful preliminary to the study of the main
problem.
Notes
[1.]J. Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (New York; Harper, 1942),
p. 175. Professor Schumpeter is, I believe, also the original author of the myth that
Pareto and Barone have “solved” the problem of socialist calculation. What they, and
many others, did was merely to state the conditions which a rational allocation of
resources would have to satisfy and to point out that these were essentially the same
as the conditions of equilibrium of a competitive market. This is something altogether
different from knowing how the allocation of resources satisfying these conditions
can be found in practice. Pareto himself (from whom Barone has taken practically
everything he has to say), far from claiming to have solved the practical problem, in
fact explicitly denies that it can be solved without the help of the market. See his
Manuel d'économie pure (2d ed., 1927), pp. 233–34. The relevant passage is quoted in
an English translation at the beginning of my article on “Socialist Calculation: The
Competitive ‘Solution,’ ” in Economica, New Series, Vol. VIII, No. 26 (May, 1940),
p. 125.
Online Library of Liberty: “The Use of Knowledge in Society”
PLL v4 (generated January 6, 2009) 17 http://oll.libertyfund.org/title/92
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